Recent observations have significantly lowered the impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4, which was initially estimated to have a 1% chance of striking Earth in 2032. New data collected on February 19-20 indicates that the likelihood of impact has decreased to 0.28%, and further analysis by the European Space Agency (ESA) has revised this figure down to 0.16%.
The asteroid, measuring between 130 and 300 feet in length, was detected late last year. As more observations accumulate, uncertainties about its trajectory diminish, allowing scientists to make more accurate predictions. The initial detection often presents only a single dot of light, which requires multiple observations to ascertain its path.
NASA has also noted a 1% chance that the asteroid could impact the moon. However, any debris resulting from such an event is unlikely to pose a threat to Earth, as it would burn up in the atmosphere.
Advancements in technology and an increase in telescopes dedicated to monitoring near-Earth objects (NEOs) have improved detection capabilities. Projects like the upcoming NEO Surveyor spacecraft aim to enhance planetary defense efforts, while missions like NASA’s DART have demonstrated the ability to alter an asteroid’s trajectory.
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